A DULL PRIMARY SEASON WITH FEW COMPETITIVE RACES TO BLAME FOR LOW REPUBLICAN TURN OUT

A DULL PRIMARY SEASON WITH FEW COMPETITIVE RACES TO BLAME FOR LOW REPUBLICAN TURN OUT

June 9, 2018

Political Reporter Rob Lauer

Let’s face it, this Republican primary session may be the dullest ever with most races at the top already decided before they ever started. We all know Adam Laxalt and Dean Heller will win their respective races. The only question is by how much. Danny Tarkanian is the odds on favorite in CD3 again. About the only excitement on the statewide ballot is in the Lt. Governor’s race between former Assemblyman Brent Jones, Scott La Fata and State Senator Michael Roberson. The Republican AG’s race appears to be mildly competitive between Wes Duncan and Craig Mueller, but certainly no barn burner with Duncan leading in the polls currently by 10%.

The only really exciting race in the state is in Nye County between Brothel owner Dennis Hof and Assemblyman James Oscarson and most of the state won’t have the opportunity to vote in that race. So there are really no Republican primary races that are generating much excitement driving turn out. But that’s very important to remember when the political pundits in Nevada claim a Blue Wave is sweeping Nevada this week on Tuesday night.

Turn out in the primary will not be an indicator of Republican general turnout this fall as it has been in years past. That’s because Republicans will be highly motivated by President Trump this fall when he tours Nevada and helps drive turn out arguing that electing Democrats in Congress will not only stop Trump’s agenda but will result in his impeachment. Impeachment of President Trump will be a major corner stone of the get out the vote drive for both parties making this the most important midterm election of our lives.

So the Nevada U.S. Senate race and top Congressional races will see a flood of money pour in to the state and that in turn will motivate Republicans go to the polls this fall. In addition many Republicans are deeply afraid of Democrats taking the Governorship and “turning Nevada into California”. So fear at the local level and fear at the national level will result in significant Republican turnout in Nevada. Democrats are highly agitated as well by President Trump and may also turn out in large numbers making the election in the fall one to watch.

 

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